It is understandable that people ask how the current financial crisis could happen. As the
market actors appear irrational, it is also understandable that people—lay people and
experts alike—believe that psychological factors play a decisive role. Is there evidence for …

Abstract Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation
expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with
novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic
analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in …

When financial decisions have consequences beyond the immediate future, individuals'
economic success may depend on their ability to forecast the rate of inflation. Higher
inflation expectations have been reported by individuals who are female, poorer, single and …

We assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for
stabilization purposes. We review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed
and how they affect their economic decisions. Empirical evidence suggests that inflation …

Nearly 40% of seafood is traded internationally and an even bigger proportion is affected by
international trade, yet scholarship on marine fisheries has focused on global trends in
stocks and catches, or on dynamics of individual fisheries, with limited attention to the link …

Individual differences in people's susceptibility to heuristics and biases (HB) are often
measured by multiple-bias questionnaires consisting of one or a few items for each bias.
This research approach relies on the assumptions that (1) different versions of a decision …

After the introduction of Euro notes and coins in January 2002, throughout the Economic and
Monetary Union member countries a substantial discrepancy was evident between inflation
as measured by the official consumer price indices (CPI) and that perceived by the general …

Language comprises a major mark of humans compared with other primates and is the main
vehicle for social interaction. A major characteristic of any natural language is that the same
communication, idea, or intention can be articulated in different ways—in other words, the …

To conduct monetary policy, central banks around the world increasingly rely on measures
of public inflation expectations. In this article, we review findings from an ongoing initiative at
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York aimed at improving the measurement and our …